Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
August 4, 2026 · MLB
TBD vs Emerson Hancock
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Tigers wins about 53 times out of 100.
53%
Sim projects a total of 8.1 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 47.1%, away 52.9%.
Projected score: home 3.9, away 4.3.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): -0.3.
Run line: home -1.5 (32.1% cover), away 1.5 (67.9% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/4/2026, 2:05:02 PM.