Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
July 31, 2026 · MLB
Zebby Matthews vs Bryce Miller
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Mariners wins about 55 times out of 100.
55%
Sim projects a total of 7.8 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 55.0%, away 45.0%.
Projected score: home 4.2, away 3.6.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): +0.5.
Run line: home -1.5 (38.5% cover), away 1.5 (61.5% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/31/2026, 2:05:04 PM.