Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
August 6, 2026 · MLB
Bailey Ober vs Michael Wacha
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Royals wins about 52 times out of 100.
52%
Sim projects a total of 9.2 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 51.7%, away 48.3%.
Projected score: home 4.7, away 4.4.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): +0.2.
Run line: home -1.5 (36.9% cover), away 1.5 (63.1% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/6/2026, 2:05:06 PM.