Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
September 8, 2026 · MLB
Dean Kremer vs Drew Anderson
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Twins wins about 53 times out of 100.
53%
Sim projects a total of 8.2 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 47.0%, away 53.0%.
Projected score: home 3.9, away 4.2.
Dispersion: 3.29.
Mean margin (home): -0.3.
Run line: home -1.5 (31.8% cover), away 1.5 (68.2% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 9/8/2026, 2:05:12 PM.