Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
August 1, 2026 · MLB
Jordan Hicks vs Drew Rasmussen
TrueTail's simulation - context only
White Sox wins about 55 times out of 100.
55%
Sim projects a total of 7.8 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 44.8%, away 55.2%.
Projected score: home 3.6, away 4.3.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): -0.6.
Run line: home -1.5 (28.8% cover), away 1.5 (71.2% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/1/2026, 2:05:03 PM.