Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox
August 6, 2026 · MLB
Luis Castillo vs Ranger Suarez
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Red Sox wins about 58 times out of 100.
58%
Sim projects a total of 8.0 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (11% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 58.2%, away 41.8%.
Projected score: home 4.5, away 3.5.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): +0.9.
Run line: home -1.5 (42.1% cover), away 1.5 (57.9% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/6/2026, 2:05:12 PM.