New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs
July 31, 2026 · MLB
Will Warren vs Shota Imanaga
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Cubs wins about 50 times out of 100.
50%
Sim projects a total of 8.6 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 50.1%, away 49.9%.
Projected score: home 4.3, away 4.3.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): -0.0.
Run line: home -1.5 (34.6% cover), away 1.5 (65.4% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/31/2026, 2:05:13 PM.