Indiana Fever at Portland Fire
July 31, 2026 · WNBA
TrueTail's lean
Fever wins about 80 times out of 100.
80%
Sim projects a total of 204.8 points.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model wnba-sim-v2
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 205 total points most often (2% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 20.3%, away 79.8%.
Projected score: home 96.7, away 108.5.
Mean margin (home): -11.8.
Model wnba-sim-v2, n=10,000, computed 7/31/2026, 2:05:35 PM.