Portland Fire at Las Vegas Aces
July 28, 2026 · WNBA
TrueTail's lean
Aces wins about 81 times out of 100.
81%
Sim projects a total of 187.7 points.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model wnba-sim-v2
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 187 total points most often (2% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 80.9%, away 19.1%.
Projected score: home 100.0, away 87.6.
Mean margin (home): +12.4.
Model wnba-sim-v2, n=10,000, computed 7/28/2026, 2:05:32 PM.