New York Liberty at Los Angeles Sparks
July 28, 2026 · WNBA
TrueTail's lean
Liberty wins about 63 times out of 100.
63%
Sim projects a total of 186.7 points.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model wnba-sim-v2
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 186 total points most often (2% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 36.8%, away 63.2%.
Projected score: home 91.0, away 95.7.
Mean margin (home): -4.6.
Model wnba-sim-v2, n=10,000, computed 7/28/2026, 2:05:32 PM.