TrueTail Verify the tail.

Connecticut Sun at Washington Mystics

July 28, 2026 · WNBA

TrueTail's lean

Mystics wins about 61 times out of 100.

61%
Sun 38.9% Mystics 61.1%

Sim projects a total of 155.3 points.

n=10,000 simulated trials · model wnba-sim-v2

The distribution

TrueTail's sims land on 155 total points most often (2% of simulated outcomes).

Show the math

Win probability: home 61.1%, away 38.9%.
Projected score: home 79.5, away 75.6.
Mean margin (home): +4.0.
Model wnba-sim-v2, n=10,000, computed 7/28/2026, 2:05:32 PM.

How this works · Numbers, explained