Market Report
Week of 2026-08-03 – 2026-08-09. Every number below comes straight from our own database.
01 · The week's movers
Moneyline
Philadelphia Union @ New York City FC · New York City FC
opened -133, closed +115 (-10.6pt)
St. Louis City SC @ San Jose Earthquakes · San Jose Earthquakes
opened -133, closed +100 (-7.1pt)
Joshua Van @ Alexandre Pantoja · Alexandre Pantoja
opened -120, closed +105 (-5.8pt)
San Diego FC @ Los Angeles FC · Los Angeles FC
opened -244, closed -189 (-5.5pt)
Lucas Fernando @ Rafael Tobias · Rafael Tobias
opened +177, closed +215 (-4.4pt)
Sporting Kansas City @ Colorado Rapids · Colorado Rapids
opened -303, closed -244 (-4.3pt)
Chicago Fire @ Orlando City SC · Orlando City SC
opened +195, closed +170 (+3.1pt)
Columbus Crew SC @ Charlotte FC · Charlotte FC
opened +115, closed +130 (-3.0pt)
Spreads
Sporting Kansas City @ Colorado Rapids · Colorado Rapids
opened -1.5, closed -1 (+0.5)
02 · Steam log
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers · moneyline
115 → -160 (-275) · FanDuel
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers · spread
1.5 → -1.5 (-3) · FanDuel
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers · moneyline
-170 → -195 (-25) · FanDuel
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers · moneyline
-195 → -460 (-265) · FanDuel
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers · moneyline
-460 → -800 (-340) · FanDuel
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers · moneyline
-800 → -390 (+410) · FanDuel
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers · moneyline
-390 → -2400 (-2010) · FanDuel
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers · spread
-1.5 → -3.5 (-2) · FanDuel
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers · moneyline
-2400 → -6000 (-3600) · FanDuel
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks · moneyline
100 → -106 (-206) · FanDuel
Derived retroactively from this week's stored line-move snapshots - steam events themselves are not persisted, so this re-runs the same detector live alerts use over the week's history.
03 · The record, this week
Today's Tails: 69 surfaced this week, 57 graded so far.
68.4% beat the closing line, averaging +2.61% CLV.
04 · Market miss of the week
No graded favorite lost outright this week.
05 · Sim corner
No sim-vs-market disagreements graded this week.
06 · What's accruing
Coming soon
Our own originated lines are being paper-tracked against the close - this unlocks at n>=100 graded disagreements. No numbers here yet, on purpose.
See the full record, or read the methodology behind it. Nothing on this page is a pick, and TrueTail accepts no wagers.