Market Report
Week of 2026-08-10 – 2026-08-16. Every number below comes straight from our own database.
01 · The week's movers
Moneyline
Philadelphia Union @ New York City FC · New York City FC
opened +120, closed +160 (-7.0pt)
Charlotte FC @ Toronto FC · Toronto FC
opened +133, closed +118 (+3.0pt)
Song Yadong @ Umar Nurmagomedov · Umar Nurmagomedov
opened -450, closed -550 (+2.8pt)
FC Dallas @ Austin FC · Austin FC
opened +162, closed +180 (-2.5pt)
Portland Timbers @ Chicago Fire · Chicago Fire
opened -208, closed -189 (-2.1pt)
Alexandre Pantoja @ Joshua Van · Joshua Van
opened -110, closed -102 (-1.9pt)
Robelis Despaigne @ Tai Tuivasa · Tai Tuivasa
opened +367, closed +409 (-1.8pt)
New England Revolution @ D.C. United · D.C. United
opened +105, closed +112 (-1.6pt)
Spreads
Philadelphia Union @ New York City FC · New York City FC
opened -1, closed +1 (+2.0)
Columbus Crew SC @ Nashville SC · Nashville SC
opened 0, closed -1.5 (-1.5)
FC Dallas @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC · Vancouver Whitecaps FC
opened 0, closed -1.5 (-1.5)
Portland Timbers @ Los Angeles FC · Los Angeles FC
opened 0, closed -1.5 (-1.5)
02 · Steam log
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres · moneyline
102 → -162 (-264) · DraftKings
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres · moneyline
-162 → -127 (+35) · DraftKings
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres · moneyline
-127 → 489 (+616) · DraftKings
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres · spread
-1.5 → 2.5 (+4) · DraftKings
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres · moneyline
489 → 1000 (+511) · DraftKings
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres · moneyline
1000 → 2200 (+1200) · DraftKings
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres · spread
2.5 → 4.5 (+2) · DraftKings
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays · moneyline
-169 → -148 (+21) · DraftKings
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers · moneyline
258 → 241 (-17) · DraftKings
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins · moneyline
-115 → 101 (+216) · DraftKings
Derived retroactively from this week's stored line-move snapshots - steam events themselves are not persisted, so this re-runs the same detector live alerts use over the week's history.
03 · The record, this week
Today's Tails: 80 surfaced this week, 68 graded so far.
63.2% beat the closing line, averaging +2.17% CLV.
04 · Market miss of the week
No graded favorite lost outright this week.
05 · Sim corner
No sim-vs-market disagreements graded this week.
06 · What's accruing
Coming soon
Our own originated lines are being paper-tracked against the close - this unlocks at n>=100 graded disagreements. No numbers here yet, on purpose.
See the full record, or read the methodology behind it. Nothing on this page is a pick, and TrueTail accepts no wagers.